S&P upgrades Ghana’s credit rating to B-/B with stable outlook

S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to B-/B from CCC+/C, reflecting stronger fiscal and external performance.

The global ratings agency said the outlook is stable, balancing Ghana’s improving balance-of-payments position and fiscal reforms against still-high debt-service costs and exposure to commodity price fluctuations.

According to S&P, Ghana’s upgrade was driven by “gradually strengthening balance of payments and fiscal positions,” supported by resilient domestic growth and favourable prices for gold and cocoa, which together account for over 60 percent of goods exports.

The agency projects the country’s gross international reserves to reach $10.4 billion by end-2025, up from $6.8 billion a year earlier.

S&P cited fiscal discipline under the new government, which took office in December 2024, as a key factor in the upgrade. It noted that authorities have introduced measures to maintain a 1.5 percent of GDP primary surplus annually and reduce debt to 45 percent of GDP by 2034.

Inflation has also fallen to below 10 percent, while the cedi has appreciated by about 30 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2025.

The agency, however, cautioned that reform implementation risks remain high. “We could lower the rating over the next 12–18 months if fiscal reform momentum stalls or if external balances deteriorate,” it said.

Ghana has made substantial progress in restructuring its debt following the 2022 default, completing exchanges for domestic debt and $13.1 billion in Eurobonds.

Talks are ongoing to finalize the restructuring of $5 billion in official and commercial debt.

S&P also noted disputes between Ghana’s creditors, including the African Export-Import Bank and Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank, which could delay full completion of the restructuring process.

Despite these challenges, S&P expects Ghana’s economy to grow by 6 percent in 2025, driven by strong gold and cocoa exports and improved investor confidence under a more stable macroeconomic environment.