Kpandai By-Election: Global InfoAnalytics poll tilt towards NDC swing

Polling data from Global InfoAnalytics suggests the ruling National Democratic Congress holds an advantage in Kpandai, but the parliamentary rerun remains finely balanced.

Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, who spoke to Channel One News on Saturday evening, revealed that recent surveys conducted in the Kpandai Constituency point to voter sentiments that broadly favour the governing NDC, even as the contest remains too close to predict an outright winner confidently.

The by-election is scheduled for December 30, following a November 24 High Court decision that annulled the earlier parliamentary results and ordered a fresh election within 30 days after declaring the seat vacant.

The Electoral Commission formally received notice of the vacancy from the Clerk of Parliament on December 8, clearing the way for the rerun.

Former Member of Parliament for Kpandai, Matthew Nyindam, has challenged the court ruling, insisting the 2024 parliamentary election was free and fair. Despite his legal objections, he has indicated his intention to contest the rerun while pursuing the matter through the courts.

Mr. Dankwah said general national sentiment among voters in Kpandai appears favourable to the incumbent government, a factor that typically benefits the ruling party during elections.

“The sentiments in Kpandai overall appear to favour the ruling NDC government in the sense that you have a majority of voters saying that the country is heading in the right direction,” he stated.

According to the poll, 66 percent of respondents believe Ghana is moving in the right direction, while 26 percent think the country is headed the wrong way. Eight percent said they were unsure.

Approval ratings for the President also remain relatively strong within the constituency. Mr. Dankwah disclosed that 64 percent of respondents approve of the President’s performance, compared with 27 percent who disapprove. A further nine percent expressed no opinion.

The survey further explored voters’ personal economic experiences. “Fifty-four percent of voters told us their economic situation has improved,” Mr. Dankwah explained, adding that 34 percent reported no change, while 11 percent said their conditions had worsened.

He noted that such indicators ordinarily provide a comfortable pathway for a governing party candidate. “So broadly, this is a sentiment that should really carry the NDC candidate across the finish line quite easily,” he said.

However, Mr. Dankwah cautioned against drawing premature conclusions about the parliamentary race itself. “What we’ve seen in the poll when it comes to the parliamentary election is that it is too close to call. The margin is just within the margin of error,” he stressed.

He added that the narrow margins mean the final outcome remains uncertain, underscoring the importance of the remaining campaign period and the final round of polling.

“For that reason, we have to wait for the final poll to see which direction the election will go,” he said.