Ghana’s Economy set for 5.9-6.1% growth in 2026, despite Middle East Tensions – Standard Bank Research

Standard Bank’s Head of Africa Research projects Ghana’s economy will expand by 5.9% to 6.1% in 2026, buoyed by structural support from gold mining expansion, critical infrastructure projects, and improved foreign exchange buffers. The economy’s stronger-than-expected 2025 performance, achieving 6% growth against initial forecasts of 5.6-5.8%, has strengthened confidence in the medium-term outlook.

Speaking at a webinar organized by Stanbic Bank Ghana on “Positioning for What’s Next: Navigating Ghana’s Evolving Market Landscape. Growth exceeded our expectations, printing at 6% for 2025. Given the base has changed now and is higher than we had expected, we still believe that growth in 2026 will be between 5.9% and 6.1%, with potential to pick up to between 6.2% and 6.3% in 2027,” Jibran Qureishi stated.

This revised outlook reflects an upgraded assessment of Ghana’s growth trajectory, underpinned by both public investment and private sector expansion in key economic drivers.

Significant public investment in infrastructure has strengthened the growth outlook considerably. Qureishi highlighted ongoing projects including the Tema Port expansion, which was commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Accra-Tema motorway expansion, and the Kumasi airport reconstruction.

These initiatives are expected to generate multiplier effects across the economy. Enhanced oversight from the newly established coal board is anticipated to reduce illicit flows in artisanal mining, a move that could stimulate fresh investment in the mining sector and improve operational efficiency across the industry.

The Bank of Ghana’s domestic gold purchase programme has emerged as a critical buffer to external shocks, despite recent accounting losses stemming from high sterilization costs associated with excess liquidity in the market. Policymakers remain committed to the programme, viewing its benefits to Ghana’s external position as outweighing short-term financial pressures.

“The sterilization cost is what has ultimately predominantly caused this loss for the Bank of Ghana. However, in our discussions with policymakers and authorities in Ghana, we still expect them to remain steadfast on the domestic gold purchase program,” Mr. Qureishi explained.

Standard Bank maintains a positive medium-term outlook for gold prices, supported by robust demand from emerging market central banks and expectations that the dollar index will eventually decline, a perspective crucial for Ghana, as gold exports continue to rise despite international price volatility.

Foreign investor participation in Ghana’s local debt market has shrunk dramatically to less than 5%, down from nearly 40% before the pandemic. While this creates challenges for external financing, it has paradoxically insulated Ghana from external portfolio volatility, making it what Standard Bank terms “a low beta market” with reduced external shocks.

This structural shift enhances Ghana’s ability to maintain steady growth regardless of global market turbulence, providing a foundation for the projected expansion in 2026 and beyond.