Kennedy Agyapong leads with 52.6% in NPP flagbearer election – Evans Duah

Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has taken a commanding lead in the race to become the New Patriotic Party’s next presidential flagbearer, polling 52.6 per cent in a nationwide delegate preference study conducted by independent researcher and financial economist, Dr Evans Duah.

Presenting the findings, Dr Duah said the data reflect a decisive shift in delegate thinking following the party’s defeat in the 2024 general election, describing the current phase of the contest as one that has moved beyond uncertainty into consolidation.

“This is no longer a fluid race,” Dr Duah said. “What we are observing now is structured alignment by delegates who have weighed electability, recovery potential and national reach.”

The study was conducted in three waves between August 2025 and January 9, 2026, and covered all 16 regions and 276 constituencies. It targeted 40,988 recognised party delegates, with 31,556 interviews completed and validated after quality checks. According to the researcher, the multi-wave approach was deliberately chosen to track gradual changes rather than snapshot opinions.

Under the final wave’s best-case scenario, which distributes undecided and undisclosed delegates proportionally, Kennedy Agyapong emerged far ahead of his closest challenger, former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who recorded 36.2 per cent. Dr Bryan Acheampong followed with 8.6 per cent, while Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum polled 2.1 per cent. Ing. Kwabena Agyei Agyapong trailed with 0.5 per cent.

Dr Duah explained that Kennedy Agyapong’s lead was not the result of isolated regional strength but consistent expansion across delegate-heavy areas. He pointed to notable gains in Ashanti, Greater Accra, Eastern, Central, Western and Volta regions as evidence of broad-based appeal.

“Kennedy Agyapong recorded the largest positive net movement across all three waves,” he noted. “His growth reflects effective post-election engagement, messaging around resilience and jobs, and sustained interaction with grassroots party structures.”

The study also highlights a contrasting trajectory for Dr Bawumia, whose support, while remaining solid in traditional strongholds, declined nationally as delegates reassessed electoral viability after 2024. According to the analysis, limited penetration into southern and middle-belt regions constrained his recovery despite maintaining regional dominance in parts of the north.

Dr Bryan Acheampong, the research found, influenced margins rather than challenging for the lead, with support patterns that fluctuated across waves. His backing was largely tied to organisational networks and familiarity rather than broad national expansion.

Meanwhile, Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum’s support remained concentrated in small clusters within Ashanti and Greater Accra, while Ing. Kwabena Agyei Agyapong registered minimal national traction, with no discernible momentum across the study period.

Dr Duah said the findings point to a race that has transitioned from post-election reflection to strategic positioning ahead of the party’s presidential primary scheduled for January 31, 2026.

“This study provides a factual terrain for the contest ahead,” he said. “The data shows where consolidation has occurred and where recovery has stalled.”

With the primaries drawing closer, the study suggests that Kennedy Agyapong enters the contest with a significant numerical and structural advantage, shaped by early post-election recalibration and sustained delegate engagement across the country.