Kusasi-Mamprusi conflict puts NPP’s 2028 victory at risk under Bawumia – Global InfoAnalytics

A new comprehensive analysis by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed that deep-rooted tensions between the Kusasi and Mamprusi ethnic groups could significantly undermine the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) chances of winning the 2028 general election if Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia emerges as the party’s flagbearer.

The report, based on a poll of 3,958 respondents, highlights growing concerns over how historical conflicts between the two groups continue to shape voter sentiment in the Upper East Region and beyond. According to the findings, 47.95% of respondents believe Bawumia’s candidacy would have a negative impact on NPP’s electoral fortunes due to the tribal dynamics, while 48.74% said it would have no effect. The remaining 3.31% were undecided.

Although the margin appears narrow, the analysis warns that the impact could be devastating for the NPP. Among decided voters, support for Bawumia’s candidacy leads by less than one percentage point—a dangerously thin gap in Ghana’s fiercely competitive two-party system.

The poll also indicates that opposition from the Kusasi bloc and their allied groups would be absolute and mobilized, with many vowing to vote against the NPP if Bawumia leads the party. By contrast, support from the Mamprusi base and loyal NPP strongholds appears passive, with little indication of any significant increase in votes to offset potential losses.

Global InfoAnalytics warns that the Upper East Region, a crucial electoral battleground, could become a strategic disaster for the NPP. If the Kusasi bloc consolidates behind the National Democratic Congress (NDC), the NPP would face an uphill battle requiring unprecedented gains in other regions to compensate for its losses in the north—a scenario analysts describe as highly risky.

The report further notes that undecided voters, though just over 3%, could tip the scales. Historically, such voters are more likely to break against candidates seen as polarizing, which could worsen NPP’s standing.

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In conclusion, the analysis cautions that selecting Dr. Bawumia as the flagbearer risks transforming the 2028 general election into a high-stakes gamble on tribal alignments in the north. Without deliberate strategies to defuse Kusasi-Mamprusi tensions, the NPP could face a significant voter backlash and a potential electoral defeat.