Ghana to remain among fastest-growing emerging markets in 2026 – Fitch Solutions

Ghana is projected to record another year of strong economic expansion in 2026, with Fitch Solutions forecasting real GDP growth of 5.9%.

At the 2026 PwC Ghana Post-Budget Forum, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, said the country’s growth trajectory remains impressive, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and renewed investor confidence.

“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” he said.

Kruiniger explained that the growth outlook is anchored largely on strong private consumption and a sustained rebound in fixed investment, which is recovering from a sharp contraction recorded in 2023.

He added that domestic demand is set to remain “a powerful engine of expansion” beyond next year.

“In the medium term—beyond 2026—growth is expected to remain healthy at around 5%, buoyed by strong domestic demand. Crucially, Ghana’s growth projections are strong not only by historical standards but also relative to global peers,” he noted.

Fitch Solutions expects Ghana to outperform several major emerging markets in 2026, including mainland China, Indonesia and Kenya. Kruiniger described this as “a story of outperformance,” driven by stabilising macroeconomic indicators and improving investor sentiment.

But the firm also flagged mounting security concerns in the Sahel as a significant downside risk. It warned that the spread of Islamist insurgency activity could potentially affect Ghana’s northern border areas if the situation deteriorates further.

“So far, Ghana has been relatively shielded from violent spillovers compared to other coastal West African states—Benin, for example. But Islamist groups are gaining ground in the Sahel, particularly in Mali, and the risks to Ghana are rising,” Kruiniger cautioned.

He stressed that any southward movement of militant groups could compel the government to increase defence spending, which is currently among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. Such a shift, Fitch Solutions warned, could strain public finances and disrupt Ghana’s broader macroeconomic stability efforts.

“Our base case is that Ghana will remain largely insulated from major attacks. But if militants were to cross into northern Ghana, the government would likely need to ramp up military spending,” he said.

Despite the risks, Fitch Solutions maintains that Ghana’s near-term outlook remains one of the strongest among emerging markets, underpinned by resilient demand and improving investor sentiment.