Mussa Dankwah tips Baba Jamal to win Ayawaso East by-election in landslide

Renowned Pollster Mussa Dankwah has projected a decisive victory for NDC’s Baba Jamal in the upcoming Ayawaso East parliamentary by-election.

In a post on X, Mr. Dankwah’s outfit, Global InfoAnalytics, predicted that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate would secure about 75 per cent of the valid votes cast, describing the outcome as a likely landslide.

“In the final poll for the Ayawaso East by-election, NDC’s Baba Jamal is likely to win with 75% of the votes,” he wrote. He added that the projected figure is “slightly better than what the former MP secured in the 2024 parliamentary elections.”

According to the data he shared, the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate, Baba Ali Yousif, is expected to poll 21 per cent, representing what he described as a significant drop from the party’s 2024 performance.

“The NPP is likely to underperform in the by-election as Baba Ali is predicted to secure only 21%, representing a drop of nearly 8% compared to 2024 results,” Mr Dankwah stated.

In the 2024 parliamentary election, the late Member of Parliament, Naser Toure Mahama, secured nearly 71 per cent of the vote, while the NPP’s Zak Rahman obtained 29 per cent.

Mr Dankwah also projected a modest showing for independent candidate Umaru Sanda Muhammed, who defected from the ruling NDC.

“Umaru Sanda Muhammed, an independent candidate who defected from the ruling NDC, is poised to secure a meagre 3% of the votes,” he indicated.

He explained that the poll was conducted between February 28 and March 1, 2026, with a sample size of 972 voters.

“The poll was conducted between 28th Feb-1st March 2026 with a sample of 972 voters with 95% confidence level and +/-3.05% margin of error,” he noted.

Mr Dankwah supported his post with a graphic titled “Ayawaso East By-Election – Final Poll,” which displayed projected vote shares for the candidates.

The by-election follows the vacancy created on January 4, 2026, after the sitting MP, Nasser Toure Mahama, passed away.

Baba Jamal, who previously served as Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, secured the NDC nomination after a contentious primary contest against the late MP’s wife, Hajia Amina Adam.

The pollster’s projection now places him in a commanding position ahead of the vote.